By Ivan Kesic
After the barbaric attack by the Israeli regime on Iran early on Friday, in which many civilian areas were indiscriminately targeted in Tehran and other cities, the Iranian leadership has vowed an imminent retaliatory strike against the Zionist entity.
The Tel Aviv regime, backed by the United States, carried out a large-scale military aggression on multiple locations inside Iran in the wee hours of Friday morning, targeting nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and residential buildings in Tehran and other cities.
After targeting the headquarters of the armed forces, the regime resorted to extensive terrorist attacks on residential buildings, resulting in many civilian casualties, including women and children.
The local media reported that the unofficial death toll from the Zionist terrorist attacks only in Tehran province is estimated at 78 martyrs and over 329 injured.
The Zionist regime also targeted Tehran’s two main airports, Imam Khomeini International Airport and Mehrabad Airport, as well as sites in Tabriz, near its airport, and around Shiraz and Kermanshah.
The Natanz nuclear facility near Isfahan city was also hit, although only surface damage was caused because the centrifuges were buried deep underground, so there was no radiation or casualties.
The Fordow uranium enrichment facility, located even deeper in the mountains and with more advanced centrifuges than the Natanz facility, was reportedly not touched.
Israeli aerial aggression aimed to set back Iran’s nuclear program significantly, though even a US assessment suggested such strikes might not affect the program.
Regardless, the very attempt to cause damage constitutes a form of reckless nuclear terrorism because, in the event of destruction, the radiation would cause a national and regional catastrophe, according to military experts.
The Israeli aggression led to the assassination of several high-ranking Iranian military commanders and scientists, including the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, the commander in chief of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, the head of the IRGC Aerospace Forces, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei called the strikes a “crime” and promised “severe punishment,” warning of a “bitter and painful fate” for the Israeli regime.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry asserted a “legal and legitimate” right to respond under the UN Charter, holding the US accountable for supporting the Zionist aggression.
The IRGC appointed Major General Mohammad Pakpour as its new commander while Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi was chosen as the successor of General Bagheri.
Iran also canceled its participation in a scheduled sixth round of nuclear talks with the US on June 15.
Now, all eyes are on the promised Iranian retaliatory military action, which is expected to come any time, according to military sources, and would be unprecedented in scale and intensity.
What are the most likely potential targets?
Considering the types of targets from the previous two retaliatory operations last year, True Promise I and II, it is likely that Iran’s response will be reciprocal to Israeli aggression.
Due to the Israeli attacks on the Natanz nuclear facility, the most likely targets are Israeli nuclear facilities, which, unlike those of Iran, are not under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) control because the Zionist regime is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The core of the Israeli nuclear weapons program is the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center (Dimona) near the city of Dimona in the Negev desert.
The secretive center was expanded recently, based on 2018–2021 satellite imagery.
It houses a heavy-water reactor (IRR-2) and a reprocessing plant for weapons-grade plutonium. Operational since the early 1960s, it’s believed to have enabled Israel’s first nuclear weapons by 1967.
Near Yavne, 20 km south of Tel Aviv, there’s also the Soreq Nuclear Research Center with a 5 MW light-water reactor (IRR-1), focusing on nuclear science, radiation safety, and some weapons-related research.
Unlike Dimona, Soreq is internationally monitored under IAEA safeguards, but serves as a laboratory akin to US weapons labs.
Suspected storage sites for strategic and tactical nuclear weapons include Eilabun and Tirosh, respectively. The Rafael factory is further suspected of handling nuclear weapons assembly and advanced defense systems development.
Iranian intelligence agencies have recently obtained a trove of secret Israeli nuclear and military documents, so they are well aware of the precise location and role of such facilities.
Iran will undoubtedly reciprocate by targeting the air bases from which Israeli fighter jets took off, firing missiles at Iran from the territory of neighboring countries.
The primary Israeli airbases are Palmachim, Nevatim, Hatzerim, Hatzor, Ramat David and Tel Nof.
It is to be expected that the target would be vital military bases and infrastructure, naval ports in Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat, intelligence headquarters, and other military and intelligence buildings.
The Kirya district in Tel Aviv, known as the “Israeli Pentagon,” is likely one of such targets. It’s much larger in scope than it looks on the map or is officially recognized, due to underground facilities and classified offices in nearby areas.
Beneath the military complex is the Bor (literally pit), the heavily fortified underground military command center that is located a few blocks away from the former prime minister’s office, which has now been moved to occupied Jerusalem al-Quds.
This facility is relatively well protected from attacks by short-range missiles, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones, but not from larger ballistic missiles with deep penetration power and a one-ton high-explosive warhead, so it is a high-value target.
The headquarters of Israeli intelligence services are classified, without official addresses, and most often masquerade as civil function buildings.
In recent decades, the Israeli regime authorities have started selling land in Kirya, on which many “multipurpose” high-rises have been built, due to its attractive location in the center of the city.
This “multi-purpose” most often implies the regime and some other function, with the former containing multi-levels of the regime, military and intelligence offices.
Iranian military officials have repeatedly warned that the country’s indigenous missiles are capable of striking deep within the occupied territories, with the power to devastate Tel Aviv and Haifa.
While the exact target of Iran’s response to the latest terrorist attacks remains uncertain, there is a strong possibility it will be aimed deep inside the occupied lands to make the regime regret its crimes.
Thanks to the advanced precision of Iranian weaponry, the primary risk to ordinary settlers in the occupied territories comes not from the missiles themselves but from the debris of their own interceptor systems, whether or not those interceptors successfully neutralize the incoming threats.
Is Iran militarily capable of striking the Israeli regime?
Despite enduring draconian and illegal sanctions for decades, Iran’s military has made remarkable advancements, indigenously producing world-class drones, missiles, and fighter jets capable of striking distant targets with precision.
Importantly, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never initiated an attack on any country. Its formidable arsenal is strictly maintained for defensive purposes.
For any necessary retaliatory action, Iran possesses a diverse and sophisticated array of military technology designed for precise long-range strikes, proven effective whenever deployed.
Iran possesses one of the largest missile arsenals in the world and the largest in the region, comprising ballistic, quasi-ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles developed under sanctions and embargoes.
Unlike most countries that rely heavily on air power, Iran has concentrated its long-range military capabilities on ballistic missile technology over the past decades.
In the 1990s, Iran developed its first medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching all regional adversaries, followed by the miniaturization of missiles with enhanced accuracy.
Among the larger ballistic missiles capable of reaching occupied territories today are the Shahab-3, Ghadr-110, Fajr-3, Ashura, Sajjil, Emad, Qiam-1, Rezvan, Khorramshahr, and Kheibar, each typically carrying a 1-ton warhead.
In addition, Iran fields smaller ballistic missiles such as the Dezful, Kheibar Shekan, and Haj Qasem, usually with half-ton payloads.
A significant advancement is the new precision-guided Fattah hypersonic missile, which achieves terminal speeds between Mach 13 and 15, alongside its glider variant, Fattah-2.
Regarding long-range cruise missiles, Iran operates several advanced systems, including the Soumar, Meshkat, Ya-Ali, Hoveyzeh, Abu Mahdi, Paveh, Talaiyeh, and Qadr-474 supersonic missiles, as well as loitering munitions like the Ababil, Arash, Shahed-131, Shahed-136, and Shahed-238.
Unconfirmed reports also suggest Iran may have acquired Russian supersonic cruise missiles such as the P-270 MVE Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn), 3M54-1 Kalibr, and P-800 Oniks, potentially enhancing its missile capabilities further.
Iran’s combat drone fleet is extensive and varied, featuring models like the Shahed-129, Shahed-149 Gaza, Shahed-171 Simorgh, Shahed-191 Saegheh, Karrar, Kaman-22, Mohajer-6, Mohajer-10, and Fotros, all capable of carrying bombs and air-to-ground missiles.
While the Islamic Republic also operates manned attack aircraft capable of striking distant targets, it is unlikely to deploy them extensively due to the high risk to pilots and the costly nature of such equipment.
It is crucial to note that all the weapon systems mentioned are capable of launching strikes directly from Iranian territory. Should allied resistance movements join the fight, the diversity and scale of Iran’s arsenal would significantly increase.
